UFC Vegas 96 predictions

Caio Borralho called out Jared Cannonier for a main event fight, and he got it. Now, can the surging middleweight deliver?

Borralho and Cannonier headline Saturday’s UFC Vegas 96 event at the UFC APEX. Borralho enters his biggest fight to date riding an impressive 15-fight win streak, including a 6-0 start in UFC.

While Borralho seems to be trending upwards, Cannonier, who once fought for the UFC middleweight title, seems to continue to be the forgotten man at 185 pounds, as he looks to give the Contender Series contract winner a veteran lesson.

Other main card highlights include the co-main event between Tabatha Ricci and Angela Hill, a pair of finale fights for The Ultimate Fighter 32, a welterweight matchup between Michael Morales and veteran Neil Magny, Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert, and more.

What: UFC Vegas 96

Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Aug. 24. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+.

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(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)

Jared Cannonier (7) vs. Caio Borralho

The changing of the guard at middleweight continues this weekend.

Cannonier turned 40 earlier this year, but he’s still, at worst, one of the 10 best middleweights in the world, and is certainly capable of beating most middleweights on any given night. However, from a stylistic perspective, this could be a long night for Cannonier.

“Killa Gorilla” is an incredible athlete, and when he’s on, he’s a problem. The thing with Borralho is that it’s all about the W, and style points aren’t at the top of his priority list.

While the Fighting Nerds standout can deliver finishes, like he did in his most recent outing against Paul Craig at UFC 301, he’s also very comfortable winning a decision in a fight very few would go back and watch again. He has a clear advantage on the floor, especially since Cannonier isn’t historically a great defensive wrestler and grappler. My expectation is Borralho will exploit that, frustrate Cannonier, and pick up a pretty clear decision, although a late finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Pick: Borralho

Angela Hill (11) vs. Tabatha Ricci (12)

Shark Week has returned to the world’s most famous APEX as Tabatha Ricci faces the always reliable and game Angela Hill in the co-main event.

The betting odds have hovered around a coin-flip throughout the week, although late money has come in on Ricci to make her the slight favorite, which I totally understand. Ricci has been on a solid UFC run, using a frenetic pace and aggressive style to throw opponents off. Hill, however, has been in there with just about everybody and has zero effs to give, as the kids say.

Biggest questions for me? Can Ricci put Hill on her back, and if she does, can she keep her there? We’ve seen others have success in the wrestling department against Hill, but their names are Mackenzie Dern — who had the performance of her career that night — and Virna Jandiroba, who might be the next strawweight title challenger if the chips fall in her favor. Ricci is a solid hand, but I just don’t think she’ll be able to mimic that success.

This fight should be very fun, but give me the veteran savvy and gritty nature of Hill to pull off the slight upset via decision.

Pick: Hill

TUF Finale Fights: Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin, Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos

I paired both of these fights together for a very important reason: I haven’t watched a second of The Ultimate Fighter this season. If it’s for you, and you like it, fantastic. It serves a purpose, certainly.

I reached out to my best friend and conductor of the TUF Express, Alexander K. Lee, to get his CliffsNotes thoughts on these fights.

“I’ve got Ofli out-grappling Santos,” Lee told me. “He’s got that grown man strength. Santos is a good prospect but maybe a year away from being a player at featherweight.

“Valentin seems like the obvious choice to finish Loder. He was the clear standout on the show (two highlight finishes), while Loder is a classic wrestle-boxer. Then again, we’ve seen plenty of people run roughshod over the competition on the show and then fall short at the finale. Loder beating Valentin would be a pretty big upset though.”

AK, you’ve sold me, and there’s no one I trust more with TUF knowledge than you, sir.

Picks: Ofil and Valentin

Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales

Neil Magny has been in this position many times: Let’s throw the surging killer at him to see if he’s a legit top-15 guy at 170 pounds. More often than not, Magny comes through.

Not this time.

Michael Morales gets his big opportunity to face a well-known name in the division, one he has earned. The 25-year-old is 16-0, 12 finishes, including a perfect 4-0 start in the UFC. The Ecuadorian fighter seems to be the real deal, and has garnered the attention as a highly-touted prospect with his skill set. He needs to mind his Ps and Qs with Magny, of course, but sometimes freak athleticism and remarkable skills — topped with a mental side that is wise beyond his years — is a formula of success that’s hard to stop.

I’m not sure that Morales finishes Magny, but this could look eerily similar to Magny’s loss to Ian Machado Garry at UFC 292.

Pick: Morales

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert

First off, let me just say this is an EXCELLENT main card opener. Plain and simple, somebody could get got in the first seven minutes.

Edmen Shahbazyan has had a wild UFC career, hasn’t he? Remember UFC 244? He went out and iced a durable Brad Tavares in the first round and everyone believed this was a future world champion. Then, Shabazyan was a victim of pretty awful matchmaking against Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov, all of whom came with the same game plan of getting Shahbazyan to the ground and making him pay. So UFC gives him Dalcha Lungiambula, and then said, ‘Hey, let’s give him Anthony Hernandez. That’s a great idea,’ and the rest is history.

Shahbazyan wins this fight if he keeps it on the feet, that is very clear. No one is mistaking Gerald Meerschaert for Israel Adesanya — although, that part of his game has certainly improved. “GM3” makes it happen because the man is an absolute dog out there. He can weather a storm tremendously well, and is dangerous at all points of the fight if it hits the mat — which, if it does, I think Shahbazyan is in big trouble.

Meerschaert could find himself on the receiving end of a 10-8 opening round, however I think he survives the onslaught, gets a little more momentum in Round 2, then stuns Shahbazyan with a submission in Round 3 to pull off the big upset.

Pick: Meerschaert

Preliminaries

Dennis Buzukja def. Francis Marshall

Zach Reese def. Jose Medina

Viacheslav Borshchev def. James Llontop

Josiane Nunes def. Jacqueline Cavalcante

Zygimantas Ramaska def. Nathan Fletcher

Cong Wang def. Victoria Leonardo