UFC Vegas 96 gambling preview: Can Jared Cannonier fend off Caio Borralho?

Following a thrilling UFC 305, the world’s leading MMA promotion returns to the hallowed halls of the UFC APEX for UFC Vegas 96. Headlined by a middleweight matchup between Jared Cannonier and Caio Borralho, the card also features several other fights between the old guard and a rising crop of contenders. Can the old heads deliver veteran lessons or will the new breed assert themselves?

Let’s dive into the bets.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Straight Bets

Tabatha Ricci (-115)

In the co-main event, Ricci takes on divisional staple Angela Hill in a strawweight contest, and for as much as I respect and enjoy Hill, her time has come.

“Overkill” is pushing 40 in a division where no one ages gracefully and she’s facing an opponent who is on the rise. Ricci has only lost to top shelf competition (Manon Fiorot at flyweight and Loopy Godinez), and has the grappling chops to score takedowns and control Hill. I think she grinds out a decision.

Ryan Loder (+142)

This is nearly a full-on shot in the dark. Loder takes on Robert Valentin in The Ultimate Fighter 32 middleweight final, and while Valentin looked great on the show, Loder has an NCAA All-America pedigree that I believe in. Man just needs two takedowns to win this one and be on his way in the UFC, and historically, betting on NCAA wrestlers has been a successful strategy so I’m sticking to it.

Josiane Nunes (+180)

Nunes takes on Jacqueline Cavalcanti in a women’s bantamweight prelim bout, and I like her chances at pulling off the upset. Nunes is extremely small for bantamweight (and was even smaller at featherweight), but she carries real power — the kind Cavalcanti doesn’t have. Cavalcanti is strictly a high-volume kickboxer, who has to out-point opponents to win decisions. Nunes doesn’t need 15 good minutes, she just needs one good punch. That’s good underdog upside.

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Prop Bets

Caio Borralho -5.5 Points Spread (-125)

For the uninitiated, points spread bets work in MMA the same they do in other sports, just with regard to totaling all three judges’ scorecards. So, this bet cashes if Borralho wins a decision by six or more collective points (50-45, 50-45, 49-46, for example) or finishes the fight. If Cannonier wins, or if Borralho only wins by five or fewer points (48-47, 48-47, and 48-47, for example) then the bet is a loser. So basically, does Borralho dominate?

I think he does. Cannonier is a very good fighter, but he’s 40 years old and past his prime. Borralho, on the other hand, is neither of those things. The Fighting Nerds contender is 6-0 in UFC and has looked sensational. He’s a developing and capable striker, and a very good wrestler and grappler. Given Cannonier’s decline, Borralho should be able to compete on the feet, and he has a decided edge on the mat. Cannonier may be tough enough to survive the full five, but I expect a comfortable win for Borralho.

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Parlay of the Week

Let’s put together a little violence parlay.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert Under 2.5 Rounds (-295)

In his 20 UFC fights, Meerschaert has hit under 2.5 rounds in 15 of them. For Shahbazyan, it’s eight out of 10. Simply put, both men come to get or get got. I suspect Meerschaert is the one who will get got, but you can’t count out his penchant for early submission wins either.

Zach Reese vs. Jose Medina Under 2.5 Rounds (-390)

Always bet the under when Reese is fighting. The man is all violence with minimal regard for defense, which is probably why he’s never been out of the first round in his career. Add in that Medina only has three decisions in his 14-fight career, and this should be over quickly.

Parlay these twp bets together for -147 odds.

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Wrap Up

UFC 305 was very profitable for us, but of course, that was a good card. These APEX events are always hit or miss. Hopefully it’s a hit this time.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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